2022 MIDTERM HEADQUARTERS

2022 MIDTERM HEADQUARTERS

Tracking the latest polls and breaking news through election day.

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📊 RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS 📈

Last updated: Nov 7

Right now, the battle for the Senate is a dead heat, and control of the chamber will come down to these five races.

With just one day until election day, the GOP has momentum in battleground races, but Democrats are staying in it. Here is a rundown on five of the closest Senate races in America right now.


Arizona – Blake Masters versus Mark Kelly (incumbent)

  • Arizona’s Senate contest should be one of the closer races of the cycle. Republican Blake Masters trails in the polls, but he’s well within the margin of error, and Libertarian Party candidate Marc Victor’s endorsement could give the GOP the padding it needs in Arizona.
  • The last 3 polls released in this race show a tight contest, giving an advantage to the incumbent Mark Kelly:
    • Kelly +1
    • EVEN
    • Kelly +4
  • Still, Arizona is trending in the right direction for Republicans, with just hours until the polls open.
    • This race will go down to the wire, and Kelly’s incumbent status is a hurdle for Masters. But Marc Victor’s support could play a big role in wild Arizona. This race will come down to turnout, and independent votes.
    • We’re giving Masters a very slight advantage thanks to overall GOP momentum in Arizona, and Victor’s Libertarian endorsement.
    • OUR RACE RATING: TOSS-UP: SLIGHT ADVANTAGE GOP

RECENT COVERAGE: NEW POLL Shows AZ Republican Candidate Blake Masters Catching Up to Democrat Incumbent


Pennsylvania – Mehmet Oz versus John Fetterman

  • Ever since Pennsylvania’s first live debate, Dr. Mehmet Oz has climbed back into this race, and he now looks to have a slight advantage in the state. Pennsylvanians are rightfully concerned about John Fetterman’s cognitive functions after a stroke in June hurt his ability to put together sentences.
    • Two months ago, our publication was predicting a multi-point win for Fetterman. Now, we believe Oz is in a good position to win due to Fetterman’s obvious incapacitations.
    • Oz has the advantage in the polling average, and Fetterman’s image has taken a massive hit in the past month. We’re keeping our race rating at Lean Republican pickup with one day to go.
    • OUR RACE RATING: LEAN REPUBLICAN PICKUP

WATCH DEBATE HIGHLIGHTS: Oz vs. Fetterman Debate: Full Video Highlights


Georgia – Herschel Walker versus Raphael Warnock (incumbent)

  • American football legend Herschel Walker has held his own against incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock, despite explosive allegations on the issue of abortion.
    • Three major factors have helped Walker emerge from scandals unscathed and take a lead in this race:
      • Name ID – Name value is an underrated factor in politics, and in a state where football is a pretty big deal, the name “Herschel Walker” rings louder than any other.
      • Debate performance – Walker has surprised many with strong debate performances, and Warnock consistently came out flat.
      • Issues – Survey after survey, it’s become abundantly clear: in the midst of a crippling recession, record-high inflation, and skyrocketing gas prices, Americans and Georgians alike aren’t too concerned about issues like abortion. They would rather feed their families than see overreaching legislation codifying abortion into law, which is, somehow, a surprise to Democrat strategists.
    • While we believe Walker has the edge in this race, a runoff election is quite possible. One of the most likely outcomes in Georgia is neither major candidate receiving the 50% required to avoid a runoff. Still, given Walker’s advantages, we’re keeping our race rating at lean Republican flip, even if we have to wait until December for the final call.
    • OUR RACE RATING: LEAN REPUBLICAN FLIP

RELATED: Respected Polling Firm Predicts BIG Wins for Republicans in Midterms


Nevada – Adam Laxalt versus Catherine Cortez Masto (incumbent)

  • Republican Adam Laxalt has led incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto for the past month, and the newest polls available give Laxalt even more confidence of victory on election day eve.
    • Thought by many to be the seat that makes or breaks control of the Senate this cycle, Nevada’s Senate race has been highly contentious. The first few months of polling showed a dead heat race, but Laxalt’s lead seems to be growing.
    • Highly-rated polls give Laxalt an edge, while lower-quality polls show a closer race:
      • Laxalt +5 (A-)
      • Laxalt +4 (A-)
      • Laxalt +6 (B)
      • Cortez Masto +1 (B/C)
      • Laxalt +1 (B-)
  • It always needs to be reiterated; polls don’t mean everything, and they’re oftentimes dead wrong. But polling averages – when weighted to consider biases and errors alike – can give us a good pulse on the voter trends in a close race like this. In Nevada, recent data points towards a clear right-wing trend.
    • Nevada is poised for a GOP sweep, with Joe Lombardo also leading the gubernatorial race in the state.
    • This race will be close, but we believe Nevada’s Senate seat will ultimately give Republicans a majority in 2023.
    • OUR RACE RATING: LEAN REPUBLICAN FLIP

RELATED: Respected Polling Firm Predicts BIG Wins for Republicans in Midterms


New Hampshire – Don Bolduc versus Maggie Hassan (incumbent)

  • General Don Bolduc shocked pollsters in New Hampshire, climbing back into this race late into summer, and his campaign has only closed the gap since.
    • The past three polls (and their ratings) are as follows:
      • Hassan +2 (B-)
      • EVEN (A/B)
      • Hassan +2 (B)
    • Given recent polling, this race is much closer than anyone expected, and New Hampshire will overwhelmingly re-elect moderate GOP Governor Chris Sununu tomorrow. This race is close, and extremely competitive – despite left-wing forecasters and biased pollsters suggesting otherwise.
    • Still, we are keeping our race rating at Lean Democrat toss-up considering Hassan’s ever-so-slight advantage in the polls.
    • OUR RACE RATING: LEAN DEMOCRAT TOSS-UP

Last updated: Nov 7
  • With just days until the election, Republicans hold leads in key toss-up states, including Oregon, Nevada, and Wisconsin. On top of that, no incumbent Republican governor is in much danger.
  • However, Democrats are still strongly positioned to hold onto key executive seats in Michigan, Kansas, and Pennsylvania, all thought to be pick-up opportunities for the GOP.

Arizona – Kari Lake (R) versus Katie Hobbs (D)

  • Not much has changed in Arizona’s gubernatorial race in recent weeks. Trump-aligned Republican Kari Lake is leading Secretary of State Katie Hobbs by three points in the latest poll, and she leads by an average of two points in the past four polls taken.
  • While Lake’s dominance in the polling seems to have slowed down, she hasn’t trailed since early October.
    • Hobbs’ refusal to face Lake on the debate stage speaks for itself, and barring last-second surprises, longtime Phoenix newscaster Kari Lake should be Arizona’s next governor in 2023.
    • OUR RACE RATING: SOLID REPUBLICAN HOLD
  •  

RELATED: New Poll Gives HUGE Lead to MAGA Superstar Kari Lake


Michigan – Tudor Dixon (R) versus Gretchen Whitmer (D)

  • Democrat incumbent Gretchen Whitmer leads Republican Tudor Dixon with just 5 days to go, but Dixon closed the gap at the end of October substantially and continues to rise in recent surveys.
  • Strong debate performances from Dixon could provide a solid boost on election day, but as the race stands, Whitmer has some major advantages.
    • Her high approval rating of 54% – despite a slate of scandals, unpopular lockdowns, and corruption inside her administration – gives Whitmer a strong base of support. 
    • Whitmer also has a massive cash advantage in this race. Seen as one of the most electable nationwide presidential candidates in the party, the Democrats aren’t letting Whitmer go down without an expensive fight.
    • In September, Whitmer had 28 times more cash on hand than Dixon.
  • Given the clear advantages in play for Gretchen Whitmer, flipping Michigan’s governorship might have to wait for the GOP.
    • However, considering new polling that shows this race tightening ahead of election day, we’re updating our race rating from STRONG Democrat hold to LIKELY Democrat hold.
    • OUR RACE RATING: LIKELY DEMOCRAT HOLD

 


Oregon – Christine Drazan (R) versus Tina Kotek (D)

  • Oregon – the surprise of the cycle so far for Republicans – is one of three toss-up races that could go either way.
  • Christine Drazan has dazzled in debates, and the Democrats’ nominee, former Speaker of the State House Tina Kotek, is attacking current Democrat Governor Kate Brown’s policies in advertisements.
  • Top-rated polls have shown Drazan leading Kotek since mid-October, and Drazan holds leads in the most recent data available too.
    • Oregon billionaire and Nike founder Phil Knight has poured millions into Drazan’s campaign over the past two months.
    • All arrows are pointing up for the GOP in this race, but this is much too close to call.
  • The outcome in Oregon could come down to the third-party vote of Betsy Johnson, who is projected to win 10-15% of the state’s overall electorate.
    • Johnson served in Oregon’s State Senate from 2005 until 2021, when she announced her candidacy for governor. She is known as a conservative Democrat in the state, and she previously had the support of Phil Knight before Drazan.
    • If Johnson’s coalition of moderate and Democrat voters stick with her on election day or opt for Drazan like Nike’s Knight, Kotek is at a disadvantage. However, there is still the chance that Johnson’s coalition shifts back to the Democrats and supports Kotek in the final days.
    • Right now, FiveThirtyEight projects a razor-thin margin – just 0.3% – between Drazan and Kotek on election day, and we like Drazan’s chances in the pro-GOP climate.
    • OUR RACE RATING:  CLOSE TOSS-UP: ADVANTAGE GOP

 

RELATED: Oregon Governor’s Race Quietly Turned to TOSS-UP by Top Forecaster


Nevada – Joe Lombardo (R) versus Steve Sisolak (D)

  • Like Oregon, Nevada’s gubernatorial race is another key toss-up race, but in the final days, Republican Joe Lombardo appears to have taken a moderately-strong lead.
    • Trafalgar Group’s latest poll finds Lombardo leading by seven in Nevada, and the Senate race is moving similarly to the right in the state.
    • Republicans have serious momentum in Nevada, and Lombardo has started to run away with this one. Still, the popular vote will be very close, and the GOP can’t afford complacency.
    • That said, polling for Lombardo looks consistently positive, whether the pollster leans left or right. We’re updating our race rating from TOSS-UP: advantage GOP to LIKELY Republican flip.
    • OUR RACE RATING: LIKELY REPUBLICAN FLIP
 

Kansas – Derek Schmidt (R) versus Laura Kelly (D)

  • In Kansas, a red state that hasn’t elected a Democrat Senator since the 1930s, you wouldn’t think a Democrat could win re-election, let alone win the office in the first place. But Kansans historically elect state leaders from both parties, and right now, incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly has their support. 
  • While abortion simply hasn’t given Democrats the game-changing edge they were hoping for, it has certainly driven political participation among the left wing in Kansas.
    • Kansans overwhelmingly voted to entrench abortion into law over the summer, and ever since that referendum, Kelly’s supremacy hasn’t been questioned in this race.
  • However, challenger Derek Schmidt is still polling close behind Kelly (trails by five points in the latest poll), and the pro-abortion momentum has cooled nationwide.
    • This race will be close, but considering Kelly is a popular governor, and partisan leanings don’t affect gubernatorial races in Kansas as much as they do in other states, we believe she has the edge required to win re-election.
    • Schmidt’s campaign has flown under the radar all cycle, despite an endorsement from Trump, and Kansas is one state where abortion does seem to be affecting voters.
    • All that being said, we’re moving our race rating from LEAN Democrat hold to LIKELY Democrat hold. 
    • OUR RACE RATING: LIKELY DEMOCRAT HOLD

 


 

Wisconsin – Tim Michels (R) versus Tony Evers (D)

  • Businessman Tim Michels launched a campaign to de-seat incumbent Democrat Governor Tony Evers, and this race has been neck-and-neck since October.
  • Recent polls show a dead heat contest in Wisconsin, with no highly-rated poll showing either candidate with a lead larger than two points. Here are the past five polls (and their ratings):
    • EVEN (A/B)
    • Evers +2 (A)
    • Michels +1 (A)
    • EVEN (A/B)
    • Michels +2 (A-)
  • Polling can’t tell us everything about a race, but these polls speak for themselves. This race is far too close to call for either side, but we’re giving Michels a slight advantage thanks to national GOP momentum and Biden’s unpopularity.
    • We’re moving our race rating from TOSS-UP: advantage Democrat to TOSS-UP: advantage Republican.
    • OUR RACE RATING: TOSS-UP: ADVANTAGE GOP
 

Other Notable Race Predictions:

  • Texas: SOLID GOP HOLD
  • Florida: SOLID GOP HOLD
  • Georgia: SOLID GOP HOLD
  • Oklahoma: SOLID GOP HOLD
  • Alaska: SOLID GOP HOLD
  • Ohio: SOLID GOP HOLD
Last updated: Nov 7
  • Based on the latest polls, Republicans will take back the House in the midterms in a landslide victory.
  • FiveThirtyEight’s model gives Republicans an 84/100 chance of controlling the chamber.
  • Races to watch: The House is all but a foregone conclusion for Democrats, but majority Latino races in Texas – especially Texas’ 34th district – could send signs that the GOP is still expanding its support among Hispanics… a devastating look for Democrats now largely dependent on White liberals.
    • Right now, we rate TX-34 as a GOP toss-up, meaning incumbent Republican Mayra Flores has a slight advantage.

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