The Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling staff now projects that Republicans will gain three Senate seats in November, with Democrats taking net zero Senate seats.
A new map released recently shows Nevada, Georgia and Arizona pulling toward the Republicans – something the experts have wavered on in recent months. Republicans are projected to hold Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio.
In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxault leads Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto in the RCP average by +1.2 points. The PredictIt prediction market shows Laxault with a 2 to 1 chance of winning, continuing to gain steam heading into November.
Georgia Democrat Senate incumbent Raphael Warnock leads Republican challenger Herschel Walker by +2.4 points in the RCP average. When adjusted for polling error, it places Warnock with a slim +1.0 lead over Herschel. RCP staff predicts a December 6th runoff between the two men.
Arizona is listed as “GOP pick up” in the RCP prediction. While Democrat Mark Kelly leads in the RCP polling average by +2.5 points, the prediction staff adjusts for polling errors in previous years, only giving Kelly a slim 0.5-point lead. If other factors such as the economy come into play, this is likely what will put Republican Blake Masters over the finish line.
Ohio is listed as “GOP hold”, with Trump-endorsed J.D. Vance leading Democrat Tim Ryan for the Senate seat. He holds a RCP average lead of +2.5 points. When adjusted for previous polling errors, Vance leads by +10.8 points.
Pennsylvania is perhaps the most closely watched Senate race of the cycle. John Fetterman leads Dr. Memet Oz by +2.4 points in the RCP average, but when adjusted for underestimated polls, Oz leads Fetterman by +2.4 points. RCP staff marks this race as a “GOP hold.”
President Joe Biden is 11.8 points underwater with job approval. 42.4% of Americans approve of his performance, while 54.2% of Americans disapprove. The Generic Congressional Ballot has Republicans leading by 3.4 points going into late October.