We are still more than two years out from the 2024 presidential election, but the markets are actively trying to decipher the future of the Republican Party.
According to political betting site PredictIt.org, Donald J. Trump holds a 6-point lead in a field of potential candidates, with the likelihood resting at 38%* at the time of this writing.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is close on Trump’s tail with a 32% likelihood. DeSantis has made headlines the past two years for taking aggressive political action against the Left in the state of Florida. The governor will face a re-election challenge this year. He holds an 8-point advantage over the most likely Democratic challenger, Charlie Crist, according to the Real Clear Politics average.
Former President Donald Trump has strongly hinted at running for president in 2024. Last summer, Rolling Stone magazine reported on leaked information from three close friends of Trump, saying he is planning to run. He also told Hannity he had “made up his mind” on a decision. But Mr. Trump’s health has been questioned, and it is speculated that his well-being may play a role in his decision.
If Trump decides to run, it is unclear whether DeSantis would officially throw his hat in the ring. There is strong crossover between support for Trump and support for DeSantis, and getting into a head-on fight with Trump may be harmful for his political aspirations. But DeSantis may be up for the challenge, and political winds can change in the course of two years.
Runners up in the 2024 Republican nomination prediction odds include Nikki Haley with 8%, Mike Pence with 4%, Tim Scott with 4%, Mike Pompeo with 3%, Mitt Romney with 3%, and Ted Cruz with 3%.
*NOTE: PredictIt displays contract prices for “Yes” or “No” on each candidate. These prices are displayed in cents and can be thought of as the percentage likelihood for an event. The price is the amount a user would have to risk to win $1. If a candidate is trading at .08 cents, a potential user would lay .08 cents to win a dollar. This low risk corresponds with low likelihood, meaning .08 cent contract price is around 8% likelihood.
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