EMERSON POLL: Biden’s Lead Shrinking Fast as Trump Makes Impressive Gains in Black Approval


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In a recently released Emerson College poll, Democratic Presidential nominee Joe Biden’s lead has shrunk from an average net high of 10 points nationwide down to just two percentage points. The Emerson poll, which was conducted from August 30th to August 31st,  shows that the lead has now shrunk from 50-46 to 49-47.

The positive momentum for President Trump has been widely attributed to the party convention held last month which was the President’s most positive week of news coverage in a long time. “The Republican convention gave Trump his most positive week of news coverage which likely attributes to this to his bounce in this month’s poll and increasing job approval,” Emerson poll director Spencer Kimball said in a statement following the poll’s released.

The poll also shows that since taking office, President Trump has almost a majority supporting his job approval with 49 percent approving and 47 percent disapproval.  Other interesting statistics from the poll also show an increase in support among the African American community in the United States with 24 percent approving of his job approval. “I’ll tell you right now, if he can get half those 24 percent to vote for him, then he is re-elected,” said a Democratic pollster recently. 

CNN also stated in July, If the race for president tightens, Trump’s small gain with Black voters could make a difference. It could cost Biden 0.5 points nationally on the whole compared to where Clinton ended up. That may not seem like a lot, though it could make the difference in a close election. And, of course, Biden’s margin with Black voters may tighten further if the margin with other voters also shifts. Historically, Trump is doing as well and probably even a touch better than Republicans normally do among Black voters.”

Additional stats include those planning to vote by mail. 67 percent of mail-in voters support Biden while 29 percent plan to vote for Trump.

Emerson explains, “Voters planning to vote early in person are breaking for Trump 50 percent to 49 percent, while those who plan to vote in person for the President 57 percent to 37 percent. Voters who said they plan to vote by mail 67 percent to 28 percent.” 

The poll interviewed 1567 people and has a 2.4 percent margin of error.

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