Florida Governor Ron DeSantis leads former President Donald J. Trump in the betting markets for the GOP nomination.
DeSantis is up 4 points on the former President, with a small to moderate volume of betting during the first few days of September.
Since August 7th, the sunshine state governor has held a slim lead after trailing Trump for the vast majority of the past year. His likelihood has hovered between 35-38% likelihood to secure the nomination in recent weeks. Trump has wavered between 32% and 36%.
There have been two primary increases in betting volume in the last three months. The first came on August 4th, when Trump spoke at CPAC 2022 in Dallas, Texas. Nearly 190,000 shares were traded during this 24-hour period. Trump fell from 39% to 30% over the course of the event.
DeSantis saw an 8% bump as a result of the event.
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The second volume increase came after the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago on August 8th. Trump’s odds increased 7% on August 9th, the day after the raid. DeSantis fell to break even with Donald Trump.
Since the raid, DeSantis has held a lead on Donald Trump. This signals that bettors are uneasy about the chances of Trump running for office amidst possible indictments coming down the line.
In May, Rogue Review reported on Donald Trump’s lead in the betting market. At that time, Trump held a 6-point lead over DeSantis.
The GOP will select its nominee in Milwaukee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.
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