Midterm Roundup: Where Things Stand in Tight Races Two Weeks Out


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With just about two weeks until election day, Republicans are heating up, and forecasts are turning cloudy across the board for Democrats.

In key Senate races, the GOP is surging, but the party still faces a slightly uphill climb to regain control of the chamber. In the House, a red wave remains a near-lock. But there’s still lots to watch for there, too.

In Governorships, surprising runs from Republicans in deep blue strongholds are stunning Democrats and proving just how bad the political environment has become for the left.

Senate Rundown

  • Based on the latest polls, the fight for control of the Senate is in a dead heat.
  • FiveThirtyEight’s election model gives Republicans a 47/100 chance of controlling the chamber, and things are only improving for the GOP in key races.

Where the Top 5 Senate Races Stand

  • ARIZONA – Republican Blake Masters has closed the gap on incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly, but Kelly still sees a 1-2 point lead in recent polls.
    • This race will be one of the closest of the cycle, and considering the political climate at hand, Arizona could go either way.

  • PENNSYLVANIA – Dr. Mehmet Oz has stormed back in PA after Democrat John Fetterman’s health struggles have been put on display for all to see.
    • Earlier in the cycle, Oz was seen as a total long shot. Now, he may have the upper hand.

  • GEORGIA – American football legend Herschel Walker has held his own against incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock, despite explosive allegations on the issue of abortion.
    • Walker’s resilience in the face of scandal – and strong debate performances – put him in a good position just two weeks out from election day.
    • His being arguably the greatest Georgia college football player EVER doesn’t hurt, either.

  • NEVADA – Republican Adam Laxalt is coming for incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, and this one has been a tightly-fought race from the jump.
    • Thought by many to be the seat that makes or breaks control of the Senate this cycle, Nevada’s Senate race has been highly contentious. Recent polling shows a dead heat race, with Laxalt up just 1 point.
    • Democrats are flooding the state with resources for Cortez Masto, while Laxalt has the powerful conservative organization Club for Growth running ads for his campaign.
    • Nevada will be CLOSE, but we’re betting on the pro-Republican political environment to push Laxalt to victory.

  • NEW HAMPSHIRE – General Don Bolduc is making an unthinkable final push in New Hampshire, shredding incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan’s lead to just ONE POINT in the latest polls.
    • New Hampshire remains a bit of a reach for the GOP. But if this seat flips, Republicans will likely control the Senate, and Democrats will have to do some soul-searching.
    • As of now, we’re projecting a close loss for Bolduc in New Hampshire, but the only measurable advantage for Hassan right now is incumbency.
    • This race has never been closer.

House Rundown

Last updated: Oct 27
  • Based on the latest polls, Republicans will take back the House in the midterms in a landslide.
  • FiveThirtyEight’s model gives Republicans an 81/100 chance of controlling the chamber.
  • Races to watch: The House is all but a foregone conclusion for Democrats, but majority Latino races in Texas – especially Texas’ 34th district – could send signs that the GOP is still expanding its support among Hispanics… a devastating look for Democrats now largely dependent on White liberals.

Governors Rundown

Last updated: Oct 27
  • Based on the latest polls, Republican gubernatorial candidates are surging across the country… even in states like Oregon and New York.
  • However, Democrats are still strongly positioned to hold onto key executive seats in Michigan and Pennsylvania, both thought to be pick-up opportunities for the GOP.

Key races:

  • ARIZONA – Trump-aligned Republican Kari Lake is leading Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, and AZ’s gubernatorial race is much more likely to go red than its Senate contest.
    • Lake leads by at least three points – and by as many as 11 points – in every highly-rated poll released in October thus far.

  • PENNSYLVANIA – Doug Mastriano trails Democrat Josh Shapiro, and this one has never been close. Shapiro has dominated in the polls for months, and this race shows no signs of changing course.
    • Earlier in the cycle, Mastriano was questioned as a candidate, with many critics saying his brand his too right-wing for Pennsylvania. Those critics have turned out to be right… at least in this race.

  • OREGON – Oregon has rapidly become the Republican success story of the cycle. Former House minority leader Christine Drazan is surging in the polls, and Oregon looks like it could be flipping hands for the first time in decades.
    • Drazan dazzled in the last debate, and the Democrats’ nominee, former Speaker of the State House Tina Kotek, is now attacking current Democrat Governor Kate Brown in advertisements. Things are getting messy.
    • Oregon billionaire and Nike founder Phil Knight has also poured $1.5 million into Drazan’s campaign over the past two months.
    • All arrows are pointing up for the GOP in this race, but this is much too close to call a Republican flip just yet.
    • A third-party Democrat candidate, anti-woke Betsy Johnson, is projected to take 15% of the vote. Whether or not traditional Democrats back her on election day remains to be seen, and those votes could potentially go either way.

  • NEW YORK – Just months ago, including New York in a list of competitive gubernatorial races would have been unthinkable.
    • Now, the Empire State appears to be a close race.
    • Republican Lee Zeldin is surging as he hammers the issue of crime.
    • But Zeldin isn’t just talking crime. Inadvertently, he’s showing voters how lawless the state is. Zeldin was attacked on stage during a campaign event, and shots were fired outside of his home with his teenage daughter inside.
    • Now, Zeldin must overcome incumbent Kathy Hochul’s inherent advantages in the deep blue stronghold on election day.
    • This has been a fun run for Lee Zeldin, but we aren’t convinced a Republican can win a statewide race in New York. Not JUST yet.

  • NEVADA – Republican Sheriff Joe Lombardo has a lead on incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak in the latest polls, and this one is certainly shifting towards Republicans.
    • The newest poll from Echelon Insights shows Lombardo up just 2 points in Nevada, performing one point better than Republican Senate hopeful Adam Laxalt in the state.
    • This will be another close race, but shifting winds are favoring Republicans. Sisolak, the state’s only Democrat governor since 1989, could be finished after one term.

Until the election, our publication will be updating our midterm forecast daily. Check back in for the latest at your 2022 Midterm Headquarters:

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