Predicting America’s 5 Closest Senate Races on Election Day Eve


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Right now, the battle for the Senate is a dead heat, and control of the chamber will come down to a handful of tight contests across the country.

With just one day until election day, the GOP has all the momentum in battleground races, but Democrats are staying close in key states. Here is a rundown on five of the closest Senate races in America right now.

Arizona – Blake Masters versus Mark Kelly (incumbent)

  • Arizona’s Senate contest should be one of the closer races of the cycle. Republican Blake Masters trails in the polls, but he’s well within the margin of error, and Libertarian Party candidate Marc Victor’s endorsement could give the GOP the padding it needs in Arizona.
  • The last 3 polls released show a tight race, giving an advantage to the incumbent, Mark Kelly:
    • Kelly +1
    • EVEN
    • Kelly +4
  • Still, Arizona is trending in the right direction for Republicans, with just hours until the polls open.
    • This race will go down to the wire, and Kelly’s incumbent status is a hurdle for Masters. But Marc Victor’s support could play a big role in wild Arizona. This race will come down to turnout, and independent votes.
    • We’re still giving Masters a very slight advantage thanks to overall GOP momentum in Arizona, and Victor’s Libertarian endorsement.

RECENT COVERAGE: NEW POLL Shows AZ Republican Candidate Blake Masters Catching Up to Democrat Incumbent

Pennsylvania – Mehmet Oz versus John Fetterman

  • Ever since Pennsylvania’s first live debate, Dr. Mehmet Oz has climbed back into this race, and he now looks to have a slight advantage in the state. Pennsylvanians are rightfully concerned about John Fetterman’s cognitive functions after a stroke in June hurt his ability to put together sentences.
    • Two months ago, our publication was predicting a multi-point win for Fetterman. Now, we believe Oz is in a good position to win due to Fetterman’s obvious incapacitations.
    • Oz has the advantage in the polling average, and Fetterman’s image has taken a massive hit in the past month. We’re keeping our race rating at Lean Republican pickup with one day to go.

WATCH DEBATE HIGHLIGHTS: Oz vs. Fetterman Debate: Full Video Highlights

Georgia – Herschel Walker versus Raphael Warnock (incumbent)

  • American football legend Herschel Walker has held his own against incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock, despite explosive allegations on the issue of abortion.
    • Three major factors have helped Walker emerge from scandals unscathed and take a lead in this race:
      • Name ID – Name value is an underrated factor in politics, and in a state where football is a pretty big deal, the name “Herschel Walker” rings louder than any other.
      • Debate performance – Walker has surprised many with strong debate performances, and Warnock consistently came out flat.
      • Issues – Survey after survey, it’s become abundantly clear: in the midst of a crippling recession, record-high inflation, and skyrocketing gas prices, Americans and Georgians alike aren’t too concerned about issues like abortion. They would rather feed their families than see overreaching legislation codifying abortion into law, which is, somehow, a surprise to Democrat strategists.
    • While we believe Walker has the edge in this race, a runoff election is quite possible. One of the most likely outcomes in Georgia is neither major candidate receiving the 50% required to avoid a runoff. Still, given Walker’s advantages, we’re keeping our race rating at lean Republican flip, even if we have to wait until December for the final call.

RELATED: Respected Polling Firm Predicts BIG Wins for Republicans in Midterms

Nevada – Adam Laxalt versus Catherine Cortez Masto (incumbent)

  • Republican Adam Laxalt has led incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto for the past month, and the newest polls available give Laxalt even more confidence of victory on election day eve.
    • Thought by many to be the seat that makes or breaks control of the Senate this cycle, Nevada’s Senate race has been highly contentious. The first few months of polling showed a dead heat race, but Laxalt’s lead seems to be growing.
    • Highly-rated polls give Laxalt an edge, while lower-quality polls show a closer race:
      • Laxalt +5 (A-)
      • Laxalt +4 (A-)
      • Laxalt +6 (B)
      • Cortez Masto +1 (B/C)
      • Laxalt +1 (B-)
  • It always needs to be reiterated; polls don’t mean everything, and they’re oftentimes dead wrong. But polling averages – when weighted to consider biases and errors alike – can give us a good pulse on the voter trends in a close race like this. In Nevada, recent data points towards a clear right-wing trend.
    • Nevada is poised for a GOP sweep, with Joe Lombardo also leading the gubernatorial race in the state.
    • This race will be close, but we believe Nevada’s Senate seat will ultimately give Republicans a majority in 2023.

RELATED: Respected Polling Firm Predicts BIG Wins for Republicans in Midterms

New Hampshire – Don Bolduc versus Maggie Hassan (incumbent)

  • General Don Bolduc shocked pollsters in New Hampshire, climbing back into this race late into summer, and his campaign has only closed the gap since.
    • The past three polls (and their ratings) are as follows:
      • Hassan +2 (B-)
      • EVEN (A/B)
      • Hassan +2 (B)
    • Given recent polling, this race is much closer than anyone expected, and New Hampshire will overwhelmingly re-elect moderate GOP Governor Chris Sununu tomorrow. This race is close, and extremely competitive – despite left-wing forecasters and biased pollsters suggesting otherwise.
    • Still, we are keeping our race rating at Lean Democrat toss-up considering Hassan’s ever-so-slight advantage in the polls.

On election day eve, our Senate forecast remains the same as it was last week.

We expect the Republican Party to win enough key states to achieve a majority of 53 seats in the next Senate:

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